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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
von: Laurent Ferrara, Ignacio Hernando, Daniela Marconi
Springer-Verlag, 2018
ISBN: 9783319790756 , 300 Seiten
Format: PDF, Online Lesen
Kopierschutz: Wasserzeichen
Preis: 117,69 EUR
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Foreword
6
Contents
9
Editors and Contributors
11
Introduction
15
1 The Slowdown in Global Growth: Supply-Side Factors
16
2 The Slowdown in Global Growth: Demand-Side Explanations
19
3 Challenges for Monetary Policy After the GFC
20
4 External Developments
24
References
26
Global Growth Slowdown: Supply-Side Factors
28
The Productivity Slowdown and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis
29
1 Introduction
29
2 Sources of Post-war U.S. Growth
32
2.1 Total Factor Productivity
34
2.2 Human Capital
35
2.3 Employment Ratio
38
2.4 Capital-Output Ratio
39
2.5 Summing Up
40
3 Growth, Research Intensity and Size Effect
41
4 Insights from Economic History
43
4.1 TFP and Population
45
4.2 Human Capital
48
5 Conclusion
50
References
51
Growth Potential in Emerging Countries
54
1 Introduction
54
2 The Recent Growth Phases of EMEs
55
3 Cyclical and Structural Components of the Slowdown in Major EMEs
57
4 Labour Productivity
59
5 Labour Productivity Gains: Within- and Across-Sector Effects
60
6 Labour Supply: Quantity and Quality Issues
64
7 Conclusion
66
References
68
What are the Drivers of TFP Growth? An Empirical Assessment
69
1 Introduction
70
2 Growth Accounting Methodology and Data
71
3 TFP Growth Determinants
73
4 The Econometric Strategy
75
4.1 Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)
76
5 Empirical Results
77
5.1 BMA: Pooled OLS
77
5.2 Advanced Versus Emerging
77
5.3 TFP Growth Decomposition
78
6 Concluding Remarks
80
Appendix 1. Commodities Export Price Index (CEPI)
80
Appendix 2. TFP Convergence
81
References
82
The Unintended Consequences of Globalization and Technological Progress
83
1 Introduction
83
2 Data
85
3 Evolution of Global Inequality
90
4 Causes of Rising Within-Country Inequality
96
5 Policy Options
102
References
104
Global Growth Slowdown: Demand-Side Explanations
107
Trade Weakness: Cycle or Trend?
108
1 Introduction
109
2 Building Intuition
111
3 Trade Weakness: The Cycle and the Trend
115
4 Forecasting Trade
119
5 Conclusion
122
References
122
The Role of Debt Dynamics in US Household Consumption
124
1 Introduction
124
2 Illusions About Private Consumption and Debt Sustainability
127
2.1 A Credit and Asset Prices Boom that Boosts US Private Consumption and GDP
127
2.2 An Illusion of Household Balance Sheet Sustainability Caught Back by the Deleveraging Reality
128
3 A Consistent Stock-Flow Approach for Debt Dynamics
130
4 Modelling US Private Consumption with Debt Flows Dynamics
132
5 Conclusions
136
References
136
Explaining Weak Investment Growth After the Great Recession: A Macro-Panel Analysis
138
1 Introduction
138
2 The Model for Investment and the Data
140
3 Results
146
3.1 Time-Invariant Coefficients: Model Selection
146
3.2 The Determinants of Investment Over Time: Sample Split
151
3.3 The Determinants of Investment over Time: Time-Varying Coefficients
154
4 Robustness and Further Analysis
159
5 Concluding Remarks
163
References
163
New Challenges for Monetary Policies at a Time of High Uncertainty, Low Inflation and Low Real Interest Rates
165
Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges
166
1 Introduction
166
2 Measuring Uncertainty Fluctuations
168
2.1 Uncertainty on Financial Markets
169
2.2 Micro-level Measures of Uncertainty
170
2.3 Economic Policy Uncertainty
171
2.4 Macroeconomic Uncertainty Based on Forecasting
173
2.5 Macroeconomic Uncertainty Based on Surveys Among Forecasters
174
2.6 Discussion
175
3 Understanding the Effects of Uncertainty Fluctuations
176
3.1 Irreversible Investment
176
3.2 Precautionary Saving
179
3.3 Financial Frictions
180
3.4 Discussion
182
4 Policy Implications: Three Lessons from the Literature
183
References
185
Determinants and Implications of Low Global Inflation Rates
189
1 Introduction
190
2 Global Inflation Trends
191
3 Determinants of Low Global Inflation
195
3.1 The Effect of Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates
196
3.2 Cyclical Sensitivity of Inflation
199
3.3 Influence of Global Factors on Inflation
204
3.4 The Role of Inflation Expectations
205
3.5 Empirical Analysis of the Factors Determining Inflation
208
4 Implications of Low Inflation
211
4.1 Adverse Economic Effects of Low Inflation
211
4.2 Monetary Policy Implications
213
5 Concluding Remarks
215
Appendix: Definitions and Sources of Variables
217
References
218
The Global Real Interest Rate: Past Developments and Outlook
223
1 Introduction
224
2 The Global Interest Rate
225
3 Determinants of the Global Real Interest Rate
227
3.1 Socio-Demographic Changes and Investment Shifts in the Advanced Economies (1980–2000)
229
3.2 The Growing Importance of the Emerging Market Economies (2000–2007)
230
3.3 The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis (2008–2015)
231
4 The Medium and Long-Term Outlook
233
References
234
Exchange Rate Shocks, Capital Flows and International Spillovers
236
The Nature of the Shock Matters: Some Model-Based Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of Exchange Rate
237
1 Motivation
237
2 ‘Good’ Versus ‘Bad’ Currency Appreciations
239
2.1 Literature Review
240
2.2 The ‘Good’ and the ‘Bad’ (in NiGEM): Model-Based Simulations
242
3 Lessons for the Recent Dollar and Euro Fluctuations (2014–16)
245
3.1 Identification of the Shocks
245
3.2 Macroeconomic Impact of the Dollar and Euro Shocks
247
4 Conclusions
249
References
250
International Financial Flows in the New Normal: Key Patterns (and Why We Should Care)
252
1 Introduction
253
2 Global Financial Flows: Dwindling to a Trickle
257
2.1 The Rise and Fall of Global Financial Flows
257
2.2 The Geographical Pattern of Global Financial Flows: Stylized Facts
259
3 When the Composition of Capital Flows Matters
262
3.1 Different Components, Different Degrees of Resilience
262
3.2 Changing Composition of International Financial Flows: Explanatory Factors and Implications
266
4 Conclusion
270
References
271
International Spillovers of Non-standard Monetary Policy: Evidence From Central and Eastern Europe
273
1 Introduction and Main Conclusions
274
2 Transmission Channels of UMPs
275
3 Some Stylized Facts
276
3.1 The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes
276
3.2 The Impact on CESEE Economies of the Series of Shocks Hitting the Euro Area
277
4 Empirical Results
279
4.1 Event Study Analysis
279
4.2 Longer-Term Analysis: The Portfolio Rebalancing and Banking Liquidity Channels
281
5 Conclusion and Policy Considerations
292
Appendix 1: The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes
294
Appendix 2: The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes
298
References
298